San Antonio, Texas, December 19, 2025
San Antonio’s economy is witnessing a robust job growth rate of 4.1% as of August 2025. Despite this positive trend, residents face challenges due to persistent inflation and rising mortgage rates, with forecasts expecting mortgage rates between 6.4% and 6.6% for the year. The outlook indicates that while job opportunities grow, the combination of inflation and high housing costs could impact affordability for many San Antonio residents.
San Antonio’s Economic Outlook Amid Persistent Inflation and High Mortgage Rates
San Antonio, Texas – As of December 19, 2025, San Antonio’s economy is experiencing strong job growth, with payrolls increasing by an annualized 4.1% in August 2025. However, this positive trend is tempered by ongoing challenges, including persistent inflation and elevated mortgage rates, which are expected to continue into 2026.
Current Economic Indicators
Job Growth: The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index, a gauge of economic conditions in the metro area, increased an annualized 8.1% in August 2025. This growth is primarily driven by sectors such as educational and health services, government, and leisure and hospitality.
Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for San Antonio is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through 2026, with forecasts indicating a gradual decline to 2.0% by 2029.
Mortgage Rates: The Mortgage Bankers Association has revised its 2025 mortgage rate forecast upward, now expecting rates to range between 6.4% and 6.6%, up from previous projections of 5.9% to 6.2%.
Implications for San Antonio Residents
While the robust job market offers opportunities for employment and wage growth, the combination of rising inflation and higher mortgage rates presents challenges for residents. Inflation erodes purchasing power, making everyday goods and services more expensive. Elevated mortgage rates increase the cost of homeownership, potentially affecting housing affordability and market dynamics.
Looking Ahead
Economists anticipate that the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor these economic indicators closely. The central bank’s decisions regarding interest rates will play a crucial role in shaping the economic landscape for San Antonio in the coming years.
Key Features of San Antonio’s Economic Outlook
| Indicator | Current Status | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Job Growth | Annualized 4.1% increase in August 2025 | Continued growth in sectors like education, health services, government, and leisure and hospitality |
| Inflation | Above 2% target through 2026 | Gradual decline to 2.0% by 2029 |
| Mortgage Rates | Revised forecast of 6.4% to 6.6% for 2025 | Potential stabilization or further increase depending on economic policies |
| Impact on Residents | Increased cost of living and homeownership | Potential challenges in affordability and financial planning |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the current job growth rate in San Antonio?
San Antonio’s payrolls grew by an annualized 4.1% in August 2025.
What are the projected inflation rates for San Antonio through 2026?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for San Antonio is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through 2026, with forecasts indicating a gradual decline to 2.0% by 2029.
How have mortgage rate forecasts changed for 2025?
The Mortgage Bankers Association has revised its 2025 mortgage rate forecast upward, now expecting rates to range between 6.4% and 6.6%, up from previous projections of 5.9% to 6.2%.
What sectors are driving job growth in San Antonio?
Job growth in San Antonio is primarily driven by sectors such as educational and health services, government, and leisure and hospitality.
How might rising inflation and mortgage rates affect San Antonio residents?
Rising inflation erodes purchasing power, making everyday goods and services more expensive. Elevated mortgage rates increase the cost of homeownership, potentially affecting housing affordability and market dynamics.
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Author: STAFF HERE SAN ANTONIO WRITER
The SAN ANTONIO STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HERESanAntonio.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in San Antonio, Bexar County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Fiesta San Antonio, San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo, and Dia de los Muertos. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commerce and United Way of San Antonio and Bexar County, plus leading businesses in retail, insurance, and energy that power the local economy such as H-E-B, USAA, and Valero Energy. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREAustinTX.com, HERECollegeStation.com, HEREDallas.com, and HEREHouston.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Texas's dynamic landscape.
