Texas, October 23, 2025
News Summary
Texas is bracing for heavy rain and flooding risks, especially over the weekend as widespread showers and storms are expected. Localized flooding may occur in several areas, with forecasts predicting up to 4 inches of rain. Meanwhile, NOAA’s winter outlook suggests above-average temperatures for the southern U.S., contrasting with the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions of a wetter winter. Residents in flood-prone areas should prepare and monitor local advisories as rainfall impacts and potential cold fronts develop.
Austin
Heavy rain and flooding risks are the most immediate concern for many parts of Texas this week, with widespread showers and storms expected and localized flooding possible in some areas.
Top lines
Widespread showers and storms are predicted from Friday through Sunday morning, with some rain expected to be heavy, potentially leading to localized flooding. There is a heightened risk of flooding due to excessive rain forecasts, with potential totals reaching up to 4 inches in certain areas. Southeast Texas is preparing for a wet Saturday with a Weather Impact Alert in place due to widespread rain and thunderstorms expected all day.
Another warm day is expected on Thursday in Texas, with a chance of spotty showers in North Texas. A secondary cold front is anticipated mid-week, bringing cooler temperatures just before Halloween.
Winter outlook and climate drivers
NOAA’s winter forecast indicates a higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the southern U.S., including Texas. La Niña conditions are likely to persist, leading to warmer and drier winter weather, although strong cold fronts can still occur. The NOAA forecast also suggests a 42% chance of below-average rainfall in San Antonio this winter.
These official forecasts contrast with other long-range products: The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a wetter-than-average winter for Texas, in contrast to NOAA’s forecasts. The two outlooks present different seasonal risks for residents and planners across the state.
Local observations and city-level risks
San Antonio has recorded an average high temperature of 91.9 degrees since September 1, indicating an unusually warm fall. City-level temperature patterns and recent warmth increase runoff potential when heavy rains arrive.
Specifically, San Antonio, Austin, Waco, and Dallas have varying probabilities of experiencing below-average winter temperatures. The forecast guidance for those cities differs and will influence local preparedness decisions.
Tropical and coastal notes
The National Hurricane Center has named Tropical Storm Melissa, expected to strengthen near Jamaica, but with no immediate threats to the U.S. coastline. Forecasters will continue to monitor the system for any changes in track or intensity.
Other state and national developments
Beyond weather, education, agriculture, municipal policy, and sports items are drawing attention in Texas and nationally this week.
- The Texas Education Agency has adopted a new Bible-infused curriculum for kindergarten through fifth grade, featuring lessons on King Solomon, Queen Esther, and the Book of Daniel.
- The U.S. ranching community is opposing President Trump’s plan to import more beef from Argentina, arguing it won’t lower grocery prices despite current high beef prices. The issue reflects broader concerns about domestic meat markets and consumer prices.
- Austin Mayor Kirk Watson is pursuing a waiver from state orders restricting street markings, due to their concerns over celebrating diversity and protecting city funding. The mayor’s request aims to reconcile local priorities with state restrictions.
- Texas A&M University has been fined $50,000 by the Southeastern Conference for allegedly faking an injury during an Arkansas game. The penalty was assessed by the conference and affects the university’s compliance record.
Practical impacts and advice
Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas should prepare for heavy rainfall from Friday through Sunday morning and monitor local advisories. City and county emergency services may issue additional watches or warnings as systems evolve. Those planning outdoor activities this weekend should consider alternatives or flexible plans and be prepared for sudden storms.
Key features
| Topic | What to know | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Weekend rainfall and flooding | Widespread showers and storms Friday–Sunday morning; heavy rain may cause localized flooding and up to 4 inches in places | State-level (Texas) |
| Short-term warmth | Another warm day expected Thursday with spotty showers in North Texas | State-level (Texas) |
| Winter outlook | NOAA: higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the southern U.S., including Texas; 42% chance of below-average rainfall in San Antonio | Regional (southern U.S.) / City (San Antonio) |
| La Niña | Likely to persist, favoring warmer and drier winter weather | Regional (southern U.S.) |
| Contrasting forecast | Farmers’ Almanac predicts a wetter-than-average winter for Texas | State-level (Texas) |
| Other developments | Education curriculum change, ranchers opposing beef imports, Austin mayor waiver, Texas A&M SEC fine, Tropical Storm Melissa named | State-level and Nationwide |
Timeline
| Date/Time | Event | Status/Source |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Another warm day is expected on Thursday in Texas, with a chance of spotty showers in North Texas. | Forecast |
| Friday through Sunday morning | Widespread showers and storms are predicted from Friday through Sunday morning, with some rain expected to be heavy, potentially leading to localized flooding. | Forecast |
| Saturday | Southeast Texas is preparing for a wet Saturday with a Weather Impact Alert in place due to widespread rain and thunderstorms expected all day. | Local alert |
| All weekend | There is a heightened risk of flooding due to excessive rain forecasts, with potential totals reaching up to 4 inches in certain areas. | Forecast |
| Mid-week (next) | A secondary cold front is anticipated mid-week, bringing cooler temperatures just before Halloween. | Forecast |
| Since September 1 | San Antonio has recorded an average high temperature of 91.9 degrees since September 1, indicating an unusually warm fall. | Observation |
| Seasonal outlook | NOAA’s winter forecast indicates a higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the southern U.S., including Texas. | NOAA |
| Seasonal outlook | The NOAA forecast also suggests a 42% chance of below-average rainfall in San Antonio this winter. | NOAA |
| Ongoing | La Niña conditions are likely to persist, leading to warmer and drier winter weather, although strong cold fronts can still occur. | Climate outlook |
| Ongoing | The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a wetter-than-average winter for Texas, in contrast to NOAA’s forecasts. | Almanac |
| Recent | The Texas Education Agency has adopted a new Bible-infused curriculum for kindergarten through fifth grade, featuring lessons on King Solomon, Queen Esther, and the Book of Daniel. | Agency action |
| Recent | The U.S. ranching community is opposing President Trump’s plan to import more beef from Argentina, arguing it won’t lower grocery prices despite current high beef prices. | Industry reaction |
| Recent | Austin Mayor Kirk Watson is pursuing a waiver from state orders restricting street markings, due to their concerns over celebrating diversity and protecting city funding. | City action |
| Recent | Texas A&M University has been fined $50,000 by the Southeastern Conference for allegedly faking an injury during an Arkansas game. | Conference penalty |
| Current | The National Hurricane Center has named Tropical Storm Melissa, expected to strengthen near Jamaica, but with no immediate threats to the U.S. coastline. | Hurricane Center |
Simple visual statistics
FAQ
What short-term weather is expected in Texas this week?
Another warm day is expected on Thursday in Texas, with a chance of spotty showers in North Texas.
When are widespread showers and storms forecast?
Widespread showers and storms are predicted from Friday through Sunday morning, with some rain expected to be heavy, potentially leading to localized flooding.
Is there a flood risk this weekend?
There is a heightened risk of flooding due to excessive rain forecasts, with potential totals reaching up to 4 inches in certain areas.
What alert has been issued for Southeast Texas?
Southeast Texas is preparing for a wet Saturday with a Weather Impact Alert in place due to widespread rain and thunderstorms expected all day.
What does NOAA say about this winter?
NOAA’s winter forecast indicates a higher likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the southern U.S., including Texas.
What does NOAA forecast for San Antonio rainfall?
The NOAA forecast also suggests a 42% chance of below-average rainfall in San Antonio this winter.
How will La Niña affect winter weather?
La Niña conditions are likely to persist, leading to warmer and drier winter weather, although strong cold fronts can still occur.
Does any other forecast differ from NOAA?
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a wetter-than-average winter for Texas, in contrast to NOAA’s forecasts.
What recent local climate observation is notable?
San Antonio has recorded an average high temperature of 91.9 degrees since September 1, indicating an unusually warm fall.
Are there varying winter temperature probabilities for Texas cities?
Specifically, San Antonio, Austin, Waco, and Dallas have varying probabilities of experiencing below-average winter temperatures.
Will there be a cold front before Halloween?
A secondary cold front is anticipated mid-week, bringing cooler temperatures just before Halloween.
Has a tropical storm formed recently?
The National Hurricane Center has named Tropical Storm Melissa, expected to strengthen near Jamaica, but with no immediate threats to the U.S. coastline.
What non-weather statewide developments were reported?
The Texas Education Agency has adopted a new Bible-infused curriculum for kindergarten through fifth grade, featuring lessons on King Solomon, Queen Esther, and the Book of Daniel.
What is the U.S. ranching community’s stance on beef imports?
The U.S. ranching community is opposing President Trump’s plan to import more beef from Argentina, arguing it won’t lower grocery prices despite current high beef prices.
What action is Austin’s mayor taking related to street markings?
Austin Mayor Kirk Watson is pursuing a waiver from state orders restricting street markings, due to their concerns over celebrating diversity and protecting city funding.
Has any Texas university been fined recently?
Texas A&M University has been fined $50,000 by the Southeastern Conference for allegedly faking an injury during an Arkansas game.
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Additional Resources
- Express News: NOAA Winter Outlook
- Wikipedia: Climate of Texas
- NBC DFW: Rain Storms in North Texas
- Google Search: Texas Weather Forecast
- KHOU: Houston Weather Impact Alert
- Google Scholar: Texas Weather Patterns
- Texas Storm Chasers: Weather Roundup
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Texas Weather
- Weather.com: Montgomery, Texas Forecast
- Google News: Texas Flood Warnings
Author: STAFF HERE SAN ANTONIO WRITER
The SAN ANTONIO STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HERESanAntonio.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in San Antonio, Bexar County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Fiesta San Antonio, San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo, and Dia de los Muertos. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commerce and United Way of San Antonio and Bexar County, plus leading businesses in retail, insurance, and energy that power the local economy such as H-E-B, USAA, and Valero Energy. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREAustinTX.com, HERECollegeStation.com, HEREDallas.com, and HEREHouston.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Texas's dynamic landscape.
